07.11.2006

Alarab online, Великобритания

Что ожидает Договор о нераспространении ядерного оружия?

The American President, George W Bush, used to constantly reiterate that he would not stand for a nuclear North Korea. Now that state has actually become nuclear and entered the nuclear club as a permanent member.

North Korea has become freer in action, while the USA is facing a narrow margin of manoeuvring. Now it is time to organise the funeral of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In fact, this treaty was bound to fail from the start because of the superpowers` insistence to monopolise the nuclear weapon and prohibit any other country joining the nuclear club. Thus, we have permanently nuclear countries, and permanently non-nuclear ones.

Production and Stocking

The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty is supposed to protect the world from the nuclear arsenal and the threat of their use. However, the nuclear countries continue producing and stockpiling nuclear bombs, in fact the USA has now 10,300 nuclear weapons, and the range of those weapons is estimated at 16,000 km.

Moreover, Bush`s Administration has not concealed its intention to develop its nuclear weapons and test new versions of them in the future, including the small nuclear bombs intended to be used for penetrating underground fortifications. Britain too possesses 200 nuclear weapons which can reach 12,000 km. As for Russia, it has 16,000 nuclear weapons with a range of 15,000 km, and it is rumoured in the West that these weapons are poorly guarded, which makes them an enticing target for terrorists.

France also has 350 nuclear weapons, whose range is estimated at 4,000 km; China has 400 with a range estimated at 10,000 km, and it is claimed that it helped Pakistan to develop its own nuclear arsenal comprising between 50 and 100 weapons with a range of 1,600 km. As for Israel, it possesses between 100 and 200 nuclear weapons with a 2,500km range. The Indian nuclear arsenal includes between 70 and 100 weapons with a 5,500km range; while North Korea has between 6 and 12 nuclear weapons with a range of between 2,000 and 15,000 km.

Breaking the Monopoly

Because of the defect in The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the world had not to wait long before other countries seek to possess the nuclear weapon, especially after threats circulated in Washington inside some strategic research centres of the possibility to use tactical nuclear bombs in striking some countries such as Iran.

Despite the fact that North Korea has joined the nuclear club to become its ninth member, it is unlikely that it will be the last. Though an unwelcome member, North Korea has effectively become a nuclear power, and such event marks a big strategic development at the international level especially with the increasing pace of missile manufacturing development in Korea. The dangerous repercussions of such event is that the fate of international treaties and agreements is being discussed, especially, as previously noted, The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

It must be put into consideration that North Korea in the early 1950`s was a thorn in America`s side and it endured a huge military assault from the USA that later turned into a bloody war. But the attempt to change the socio-political regime in this country failed and the USA lost a huge numbers of soldiers and equipment.

Little by little, the continuation of the existence of a country called North Korea became an American complex, especially when Washington considers that communism remains as harsh as ever in North Korea though it has disappeared from the USSR and Eastern Europe, and has been attenuated in China. This fact causes a constant nuisance for the US strategy in East Asia region.

Suspected Intentions

What is more worrisome for the USA is that Australia, which has huge resources of natural uranium, is seeking to enrich this material. Moreover, Brazil has recently inaugurated a uranium enrichment factory, and there is similar interest in Argentina and South Africa.

Though 187 states signed The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the developing countries have had doubts in the intentions of great states and refuse to abandon the option of uranium enrichment, leaving the door open to the ability of producing nuclear weapons.

According to some estimates there are now 27,000 nuclear warheads, mostly in the USA and Russia. And as noted above, most of the original five nuclear countries are renewing their nuclear arsenals.

In an effort to discourage the North Korean quest for nuclear weapons, the former US President, Bill Clinton, reached a complicated agreement with North Koreans to stop producing plutonium in return for supplying their country with fuel and assisting them to build nuclear reactors working with light-water instead of heavy-water reactors. The agreement also included a vague promise of the normalisation of diplomatic relations.

When George Bush, junior, came to the White House, he considered that Clinton had followed a policy of appeasement, whereas force was the only way to deal with North Korea. Thus, Bush decided to abolish the 1994 agreement concluded with Pyongyang; Bush`s assumption was that the North Koreans would respond better when faced with threats. According to him, Clinton was wrong when he tried to use the stick and carrot policy. As a consequence, the Korean plutonium project - that had been frozen in 1994 - was resumed in 2002 to build nuclear bombs.

Then when Bush declared that Iraq, North Korea and Iran were the axis of evil, and he invaded and occupied Iraq, it was natural for North Korea to expect to be the next target of an American invasion, for it is logical that the US Administration will think of realising what it had failed to achieve in 1951, especially that we are now in the age of the new US national security strategy and the program of a new American century marked by pre-emptive, abortive and preventive wars.

Besides, if what was rumoured before that the USA kept nuclear bombs in South Korea to face emergencies, the North Koreans must take that into consideration. And we do not need to be reminded that there is a huge US army in South Korea stationed on the North Korean borders.

The Right to Invasion

The more important thing is that the US President Bush publicly - and unequivocally - announced that the USA has the right to punish, invade, and occupy any country in the world if considered a threat to it. And despite the fact that Iraq constituted no threat - in whatever form - to the USA, it endured a devastating war that has put an end to the state and the unity of the country.

Thus, any country in the world has become exposed to American invasion as a part of the policy of establishing an American empire and imposing a unilateral domination on the whole world. Now, how can these countries defend themselves? The only way they find is the nuclear weapon, which is capable of deterring any aggression.




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